The updated threat assessment from the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (DDIS) indicates that if the Ukraine conflict were to cease, Russia could initiate significant military actions within Europe. This assessment comes as U.S. President Donald Trump aims to conclude the ongoing war in Ukraine, which is approaching its fourth anniversary.
- Updated DDIS threat assessment released.
- Trump aims to end Ukraine conflict.
- Russia could wage local war soon.
- NATO defense capabilities not considered.
- Trump urges increased NATO spending.
- Trump encourages Russia against non-compliant NATO members.
The DDIS report outlines three potential scenarios for Russia’s military capabilities following the end of the Ukraine conflict. The agency assumes that Russia lacks the ability to engage in multiple wars simultaneously. Within six months of a ceasefire, Russia could initiate a local conflict with a neighboring country. Within two years, it might escalate to a regional conflict in the Baltic Sea. The most alarming projection suggests that in five years, Russia could conduct a large-scale assault on Europe, provided there is no U.S. intervention.
Key projections from the DDIS include:
- Local war within six months.
- Regional war in the Baltic Sea within two years.
- Large-scale attack on Europe within five years.
Furthermore, the DDIS did not account for any potential increases in NATO’s defense capabilities, which could alter these projections. President Trump has previously urged NATO allies to boost their defense spending to 5 percent of GDP, significantly above the current target. He has also suggested that the U.S. might reconsider its commitment to NATO if member countries fail to meet their financial obligations. In 2024, Trump stated he would “encourage” any Russian aggression against NATO members not fulfilling their financial responsibilities.
The DDIS assessment highlights the potential for escalating military tensions in Europe if the Ukraine conflict concludes without addressing underlying security concerns. The projections emphasize the need for vigilance and preparedness among NATO allies in response to Russia’s evolving military capabilities.
