A new study published in the journal Nature indicates that the collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is unlikely to occur this century. Researchers from the United Kingdom‘s Met Office and the University of Exeter conducted simulations using 34 different climate models, concluding that no model predicted a total shutdown of the AMOC before 2100.
- AMOC collapse unlikely this century.
- Climate change impacts on Atlantic currents.
- Southern Ocean may sustain weakened AMOC.
- AMOC currently at 17 Sverdrups strength.
- Definitions of AMOC shutdown vary among scientists.
- Severe impacts expected even with weakening.
Lead author Jonathan Baker emphasized that while a complete collapse is not expected soon, the AMOC is likely to weaken, potentially leading to significant climate impacts.
The AMOC is a crucial component of the global climate system, transporting warm water northward and cold water southward. This circulation influences weather patterns and sea levels, particularly along the East Coast of the united states. Previous studies have raised concerns about the potential for an abrupt shutdown due to climate change, which could lead to severe weather disruptions in Europe and rising sea levels in North America.
Key findings from the study include:
- The AMOC currently operates at around 17 Sverdrups, a measure of its strength.
- There has been a decline of approximately 0.8 Sverdrups per decade since 2004.
- While no models predicted a total shutdown, three did indicate a drop below 5 Sverdrups.
Researchers suggest that the Southern Ocean may provide a compensatory mechanism that helps maintain the AMOC’s function, albeit at a weakened state. Baker noted that this upwelling effect could mitigate some of the more extreme consequences associated with a complete collapse. However, even a weakened AMOC could still lead to significant impacts, such as changes in agricultural productivity and fish populations.
In summary, while the AMOC is not expected to collapse imminently, its anticipated weakening poses serious climate challenges. Continued monitoring and research are essential to understand the long-term implications of these changes on global weather systems.
