Bitcoin’s price performance has sparked discussions about whether the cryptocurrency has reached its cycle top following President Donald Trump’s inauguration. On February 9, 2025, Chris Burniske, a former executive at Ark Invest and current VC partner at Placeholder, asserted that the market is experiencing a “mid-bull pullback” rather than a peak, drawing parallels to previous market behavior in 2021.
- Bitcoin's price performance post-Trump's inauguration is dull.
- Chris Burniske sees a mid-bull pullback.
- STH MVRV indicates market overheating signs.
- $96k is a crucial support/resistance level.
- Bitcoin network activity is at yearly lows.
- Potential buying opportunities if BTC retraces lower.
Burniske’s analysis comes amidst a backdrop of fluctuating Bitcoin prices, which saw a significant drop from $64,000 to $30,000 in early 2021, before rallying to a peak of $69,000 later that year. He argues that the current price behavior resembles that of April to June 2021, where many predicted the market’s end after sharp declines. His perspective is supported by the Short-Term Holder (STH) MVRV indicator, which has recently dropped from 1.35 to neutral levels, suggesting a potential exit from an overheated market.
According to CryptoQuant’s Axel Adler, an STH MVRV above 1.30–1.35 typically indicates an overheated market, leading to sell-offs. The decline in this indicator suggests that some short-term holders have exited their positions, and a return to average levels could signal the end of this overheated phase. Adler also noted that a drop below the STH MVRV average could indicate a local bottom, echoing patterns observed last September.
The realized price of Bitcoin for short-term holders stands at $96,000, a critical level that has historically acted as both support and resistance. If Bitcoin’s price drops below this level, it could trigger panic selling among short-term holders. Conversely, if the price rebounds above this level, it may sustain an upward trend. Recent trading activity shows Bitcoin attempting to maintain its position above $96,000 after a dip to $91,000, highlighting the importance of this threshold.
In summary, while some analysts are calling for a peak in Bitcoin’s cycle, others, including Burniske, suggest the market is merely experiencing a pullback. The next few weeks will be crucial in determining whether Bitcoin can maintain its position above the critical $96,000 level, which could influence broader market Trends.
